Premier League match Southampton vs Tottenham at St. Mary’s stadium on December 28, 2016
Southampton matches are the most boring in the current Premier League season, if we estimate the goals number. There are only 33 of them in 17 games (1.94 per game average) in total.
And if the Saints play a little more vividly in away matches, the native St Mary’s they torture with long-winded, slow, not the most enjoyable for watching football. Southampton have got strong defense at home and haven’t conceded for 5 hours and 5 minutes of playing time. In general, for you to understand, Southampton conceded just 12 goals in the last 17 home matches somehow. That is, their defense is brilliant.
Tottenham, even being considered a top team, is unlikely to spoil Southampton statistics. You see, the Spurs scored only 3 goals in the last 5 away matches, without winning any of them. A crisis? You could say that. It is mainly caused by Kane slump. The top striker kicked 17 shots on goal in the Premier League, but scored only twice, once from the penalty spot last month. Generally, the Londoners have scored 10 goals in 8 away Premier League matches, but 6 of them to Stoke City and Middlesbrough. More difficult away matches against top 10 teams have been the following – 2:1, 1:1, 1:0, 1:1, 1:0 and 1:0. Plus 1:1 at home against Liverpool and 2:0 against Manchester City. The trend is clear: Tottenham matches against the greats are bottom ones.
And Southampton are not just great, but also the most bottom League team. So, the conclusion is clear. The Saints defense led by van Dijk (as for me, one of the best first round players in all EPL) is flawless. By the way, only Chelsea allowed kicking fewer shots on goal than Southampton. The goalkeeper Forster is good on the last line, he is still all sorts of statistical indicators leader (he played 40% clean sheets Premier League matches in Southampton).
But Tottenham can defend themselves as well. Actually, only Chelsea conceded less than the Spurs. In turn, Southampton could crack only Burnley defense more than once. And the Saints scored maximum 1 goal in the remaining home games. The Puel guys scored only 2 goals in 5 games against the top 6 teams. Definitely, not the most formidable attack.
Overall, Southampton and Tottenham prefer to play in a low pace, strictly through the field center, slowing down the game, with a focus on their own gates defense. Such opponents clash is unlikely to give goals carnival, isn’t it?
Statistically, total under 2.5 worked in 88% of Southampton home matches ( the only miss was the same game against Burnley) and in 62% of Tottenham away games. However, if we take only the matches against top-10 teams, odds will increase to 100% and 83%, respectively. I will also recall you, that the hosts top scorer Austin is injured … The under 2.5 probability is about 70%, not less.